Detektor International No 2

Trend 1:

4K video surveillance headway or hype

Trend 2:

Another boom year for HD CCTV

2016 is likely to see the continuation of several long-term trends in the video surveillance market. They
include the move from standard-definition (SD) analogue equipment to high-definition (HD) CCTV and net-
work equipment, aggressive price competition, further consolidation of the supply base, and the increasing
importance of China in the world market.

In this article, analysts from the research company IHS Technology, present their views on the different

trends within the video surveillance market.

4K video surveillance has been repeatedly touted
as a major trend in video surveillance for the last 18
months and it can sometimes be challenging to see
past the marketing hype. Yet make no mistake, the
video surveillance market is going to 4K cameras; it's
only a matter of when rather than if. For 2016, IHS is
predicting:

Demand for HD CCTV cameras and recorders has
grown rapidly in recent years. In fact, IHS forecasts
that in the professional market, shipments of HD
CCTV cameras will grow from fewer than 0.2 million
units in 2012 to over 28 million units in 2016.

IHS is forecasting that the world market for video surveillance equip-

ment will grow by over 7% in 2016. However, the total market is made

up of many different products, end-user sectors, and geographic regions.

Some markets will grow much faster than others. As regards products, the

markets for HD CCTV cameras, and boxed appliance recorders will grow

rapidly. As regards end-users, investment in city surveillance spending

is likely to be fuelled by counter-terrorism initiatives. When it comes to

consideration of different geographic regions, the role of exchange rates

should not be under- estimated. Large currency movements in 2015 made

business conditions tough in a number of regions, such as Latin America

and Russia.

So, what will be the big stories in 2016? HD CCTV, 4k displays, smar-

ter storage, public safety, and the impact of IoT in residential applications

are just some of the trends discussed in our sixth annual white paper on

trends for the year ahead. The predictions on the following are to provide

some guidance on opportunities in the video surveillance industry.

· Volumes of 4K cameras shipped in 2016 will

remain low, less than 1 % of the 66 million network

cameras projected to be shipped globally. We are unli-

kely to see over one million 4K network camera units

shipped in a calendar year until 2018.

· More "4K-compliant" cameras will be launched

because of the increased use of 4Kp30 and above chipsets, meaning more

cameras adhering to 4K standards, such as SMPTE ST 2036-1.

· Like the HD surveillance cameras, early 4K models offered the resolu-

tion at lower frame rates. We'll see more cameras with a higher frame rate

offered, and closer ties to other video standards.

· In terms of marketing, there will be some video surveillance vendors,

with one eye on what is happening in the consumer electronics world,

which will market to the UHD Alliance premise that "not all UHD is

created equal"; we are likely to see them use marketing in the style of

Ultra HD Premium, attempting to "differentiate" some 4K surveillance

cameras by a focus on HDR/WDR (high dynamic range)and colour

representation. Perhaps there will be promotion of `super low-light perfor-

mance' further down the line.

· Many of the challenges 4K faces were overcome for 1080p surveil-

lance. The prevalence of 4K in video surveillance compared with 1080p

resolution seems further ahead than it was with the consumer market at a

similar development stage. In 2010, 85 % of TVs shipped globally were

capable of outputting 1080p video, compared with 20% of global net-

work cameras. By 2014, 5 % of TVs shipped globally could output above

1080p compared with 12 % of network cameras.

· As discussed in our trend 2 below "Another boom year for HD

CCTV in 2016", network surveillance cameras will not be the only op-

tion for 4K surveillance, as HD CCTV will eventually bring 4K resolu-

tion video to non-network systems.

In 2016, 4K video surveillance will continue to attract significant

attention and hype despite widespread adoption and high unit shipments

being still some way off. As with full HD surveillance, the initial objec-

tions and barriers will certainly be overcome; with 4K resolution in time

becoming the industry standard.

This growth is despite adoption of HD CCTV equipment being initially

slow. Several versions of HD CCTV have now been released; but HD

SDI, which was introduced in 2009, suffered from a

number of problems including high price and low cable

reach.

Then, in 2013, Dahua introduced HD CVI. This

is an analogue solution (HD SDI is a digital solution)

and its launch was followed by two other analogue HD

CCTV solutions, HD TVI and AHD in 2014. Similar

to HD SDI, these analogue solutions allow users to receive HD footage

over their existing coaxial cable. However, they have a much lower price

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