The Physical Access Control Business 2025 to 2030

Hardware, Software & Credentials

Physical access control (PACS) is evolving from standalone door security into a softwaredefined platform at the center of smart building operations, with cloud architectures, mobile credentials, and artificial intelligence reshaping how organizations secure facilities, manage identities, and optimize workplace experiences, creating both strategic opportunities and competitive risks for everyone from manufacturers to systems integrators.

It is the second instalment of a two-part series covering Physical Security Technology. Part 1, covering Video Surveillance, was published in Q3 2025.

Key Questions Addressed:

• What is the size and structure of the global Access Control market? The market reached $15.1 billion in 2024 and will grow to $21.3 billion by 2030 at a 5.94 percent CAGR. Group A companies (those with over $1 billion in revenues), together represent approximately 24.4 percent of global revenues. Group B (those with between $100 million and $1 billion) encompasses 28 companies with average revenues of $327 million, collectively accounting for 64 percent of global revenues.
• Which region offers the strongest growth opportunity through 2030? Asia Pacific will overtake Europe as the second-largest market by 2030. Unlike mature markets driven by retrofits, Asia Pacific growth comes from new construction across offices, logistics, manufacturing, and government facilities.
• How is M&A reshaping and consolidating the industry? 16 transactions totaling $7.9 billion were completed between September 2023 and September 2025, led by Honeywell's $4.95 billion acquisition of Carrier's access control business.

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