The Physical Access Control Business 2025 to 2030

Physical access control (PACS) is evolving from standalone door security into a softwaredefined platform at the center of smart building operations, with cloud architectures, mobile credentials, and artificial intelligence reshaping how organizations secure facilities, manage identities, and optimize workplace experiences, creating both strategic opportunities and competitive risks for everyone from manufacturers to systems integrators.

It is the second instalment of a two-part series covering Physical Security Technology. Part 1, covering Video Surveillance, was published in Q3 2025.

Key Questions Addressed:

• What is the size and structure of the global Access Control market? The market reached $15.1 billion in 2024 and will grow to $21.3 billion by 2030 at a 5.94 percent CAGR. Group A companies (those with over $1 billion in revenues), together represent approximately 24.4 percent of global revenues. Group B (those with between $100 million and $1 billion) encompasses 28 companies with average revenues of $327 million, collectively accounting for 64 percent of global revenues.
• Which region offers the strongest growth opportunity through 2030? Asia Pacific will overtake Europe as the second-largest market by 2030. Unlike mature markets driven by retrofits, Asia Pacific growth comes from new construction across offices, logistics, manufacturing, and government facilities.
• How is M&A reshaping and consolidating the industry? 16 transactions totaling $7.9 billion were completed between September 2023 and September 2025, led by Honeywell's $4.95 billion acquisition of Carrier's access control business.

Within its 238 pages and 13 charts, this report presents all the key facts and draws conclusions, so you can understand what is shaping the future of the access control industry.

Our comprehensive analysis of the global access control market is structured around 3 core revenue categories: hardware (electronic locks, readers, control panels, and supporting infrastructure), credentials (cards, mobile, biometrics, and alternative formats), and software (on-premises and cloud-based platforms). Our methodology evaluates 273 active companies worldwide, classifying vendors into four groups based on 2024 revenues and analyzing their financial performance, product portfolios, and strategic positioning.

Mobile credentials represent a significant transformation in how organizations provision, manage, and revoke access rights. The market is shifting from proprietary app-based credentials toward wallet-native credentials embedded directly in Apple Wallet and Google Wallet, enabling tap-to-enter experiences without unlocking devices and supporting biometric authentication by default. This report analyzes adoption patterns across vertical markets, quantifies infrastructure investment requirements, and evaluates competing standards.

At only 28 200 SEK for an enterprise license, this report provides valuable information into how physical security companies can develop their business strategy through mergers, acquisitions, and alliances.

Strategic partnerships have become important as structural enablers of innovation, with alliances between credential providers, smartphone manufacturers, and cloud platform vendors accelerating mobile credential adoption and normalizing multi-vendor ecosystems.

The report documents funding rounds, analyzes which technologies and business models are attracting capital, maps strategic alliances shaping interoperability standards, and identifies which vendor partnerships deliver genuine integration versus marketing announcements, critical intelligence for buyers evaluating platform longevity and ecosystem risk.

Who Should Buy This Report? The information in this report will be of value to all those engaged in managing, operating, and investing in electronic security technology companies (and their advisors) around the world. In particular, those wishing to acquire, merge or sell companies will find its contents particularly useful.